Ontario, New Brunswick & Nova Scotia Expected to Lead the Real Estate Pack in 2022

Source – betterdwelling.com

  • “…The latest CREA forecast shows huge growth next year, slow only in contrast to 2021. Canada’s average sale price is forecast to hit $739,495 in 2022, up 7.6% from the previous year. They also see big gains in Ontario (+11.5%), New Brunswick (+11.4%), and Nova Scotia (+11.+2%)”

Canada’s Real Estate Industry Had Forecast Slow Price Growth In 2022, But Not Anymore

Canada’s real estate industry is ratcheting up expectations for next year. The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) is forecasting huge growth for the average home price in 2022. Just six months ago, they had been expecting the boom in 2021 to be followed by slow growth. Now in a market flooded with easy money, they see 12x the rate of growth previously forecast in the summer. 

Canadian Real Estate Prices Are Forecast To Rise 8% In 2022

The latest CREA forecast shows huge growth next year, slow only in contrast to 2021. Canada’s average sale price is forecast to hit $739,495 in 2022, up 7.6% from the previous year. They also see big gains in Ontario (+11.5%), New Brunswick (+11.4%), and Nova Scotia (+11.+2%). BC underperforms at 7.1% growth, but it’s also the most expensive market by a large margin. 

Canadian Real Estate Price Forecast 2022

The average sale price forecast for 2022 in Canadian dollars, as forecast in December, September, and June.Dec 2021Sep 2021Jun 2021$0$200,000$400,000$600,000$800,000$1,000,000BCONCAQCABNSPEMBSKNLNBCanadian Dollars

RegionDec 2021Sep 2021Jun 2021
BC990,038947,434896,304
ON971,080942,325887,031
CA739,495718,206681,515
QC493,338500,228462,685
AB448,884431,116442,741
NS402,706375,162359,944
PE369,465366,526341,114
MB353,417335,222335,641
SK318,115320,233315,839
NL286,341286,189279,937
NB275,190262,534262,085

Source: CREA; Better Dwelling.

Even the worst performing real estate markets are forecast to see substantial gains. At the bottom of the average price growth list is Newfoundland (+4.6%), Alberta (+4.7%), and Saskatchewan (5.4%). Just six months ago, this was a totally different story.  

No Growth In Home Prices Was Expected Just Six Months Ago

In the CREA June 2021 forecast, the average sale price was only seen as making minor gains. Canada’s national average had been forecast to hit $681,515 in 2022, up 0.60% from the year before. In case you missed that, the new forecast is about $58,000 higher.  

Canadian Real Estate Price Forecast 2022

The forecast annual percent change in the average sale price of a home in 2022, and historic forecasts for contrast. Dec 2021Sep 2021Jun 2021024681012ONNBNSQCPECABCMBSKABNLPercent

RegionDec 2021Sep 2021Jun 2021
ON11.59.53.2
NB11.48.37.6
NS11.26.62.9
QC1111.75.3
PE8.17.83.2
CA7.65.60.6
BC7.13.91.4
MB5.92.62.1
SK5.46.42.4
AB4.71.60.9
NL4.65.62.6

Source: CREA; Better Dwelling.

A similar trend can be observed in the provincial breakdown as well. Growth had been forecast at much lower levels in Ontario (+3.2%), and BC (+1.4%), for example. New Brunswick was seen as leading the market with 7.6% growth. Now the whole country on average is forecast to see growth equal to the best performer in June’s report. 

This is a huge swing in opinion for the real estate industry. Last summer was no slouch for values, as record home sales had been hit. It was reasonable to expect such large growth to be followed with a breather of some sort. Now with easy money persisting much longer than expected, that’s out the window. The threat of higher rates barely registers anymore